Hawthorn Vs Melbourne
Last Time They Met: Hawthorn 18.7. 115 defeated Melbourne 6.12. 48 (MCG)
Why the Hawks will win:
They won easily last time (round 4), but as I always say for games played greater than six weeks ago, t’s too long gone to be relevant.
What is more recent though is last week, and that wouldn’t indicate the Hawks are in great touch, but as often the case for the losers of the Qualifying Finals – their previous form is thrown away and they’re all of a sudden no good, although the Hawks had won 6 on the trot before it.
Tom Mitchell was good last Thursday night, but not at his brilliant best against the Tigers. He will carry a backpack in the shape of James Harmes around, but I think he’ll be more influential this week. Jaeger O’meara played a cracking first final and will also be better this outing, so will Shaun Burgoyne, Gunston, Bruest and Sicily – the Hawks genuine A Graders, who all had rare quiet ones.
The improvement in the Hawks is obvious, and almost a given, because the above mentioned men don’t play two bad ones in a row. It’s with that in mind, the Hawks are a red hot chance.
Why Melbourne will win:
Form, connection, hardness at the pill, a game plan that has been building all year and looks made for September – just ask Geelong.
A common mistake is to overrate how well the winners of the elimination finals are going, too, but this isn’t one of those times, as the Dees were on a tear in the latter part of the season proper – taking down West Coast and GWS in succession, who are both still in the finals race.
Gawn is the leagues best ruckman (sorry Grundy fans), and at his feet are a young bunch of tough bastards midfielders in the All Australian Clayton Oliver, skipper Jack Viney, and the less heralded Angus Brayshaw.
Clearing the ball from congestion and getting it forward is a recipe for success, and with a new, smaller forward line showing a knack for scoring, it looks like it will worry the Hawthorn backline, who will be missing their best stopper, Ben Stratton.
Who is actually going to win:
I don’t like to do this, and I am very tempted not to, but the loss of Stratton just makes the Hawks challenge that much harder, so I believe it will be the Demons who come out on top.
My only worry is the pride among Hawthorn’s side that won’t want to go out in straight sets again, like they did last time they made the finals. That mixed with some potential Melbourne complacency nearly had me going the other way, in a close one.
Melbourne by 22 points.
Collingwood Vs GWS
Last Time They Met: Collingwood 12.7. 79 lost to GWS 15.5. 95 (MCG)
*Why the Pies will win: *
They bucked the trend of teams losing the Qualifying final being written off, with everyone practically conceding they were very good and a little unlucky not to book their Prelim spot last weekend. The Pies are playing well, and have had some players return at the right time.
They got nothing out of big (Mason) Cox in the West, but he does his best work on the G, and has a knack for being a fast starter after coming under criticism, so watch for him to grab a few early.
Adam Treloar was unable to raise out of second gear in the second half against The Eagles, but he’ll have gotten some fitness, and a lot of confidence, from the outing – that’s ominous. Beside him Levi Greenwood and Taylor Adams are doing big jobs in the middle, and the stars in Pendlebury and Sidebottom can be expected to do their usual work – being in the best few on the park.
The unheralded Collingwood backline keep standing up, and Tyson Goldsack is a welcome inclusion, and contributor, to battle with the GWS bigs (Cameron, Lobb and Himmelberg).
The Pies look to have a real affection for each other and a system that keeps them in every game they play. On their home ground against the Giants, they’ll be hard to stop.
Why the Giants will win:
It’s their destiny.
They’ve been building for this, and although playing in preliminary finals the past two years, this might be their best shot at a flag – derr, because it’s the one in front of them.
The talented Giants have come of age in the back half of this season, facing injuries, reoccurring injuries, and suspensions on a weekly basis, but it all seems to be behind them – except for the Josh Kelly knee, which granted is a massive out.
For maybe the first time ever, it hasn’t been about talent for GWS, it’s been about persistence, mental toughness and playing a type of football made for finals. No one displays these qualities better than their Captains and Vice Captain, Cal Ward, Phil Davis and Stephen Coniglio, who’ve all been exceptional this season. They in many ways hold the Giants fortunes in their hands.
Ward puts the concrete helmet on every game in the middle, and Coniglio will match up with Pendlebury, in an attempt to quell the Pies skipper, but also work him the other way – something he does so well. As for Davis, he’ll look to double down Mason Cox’s poor performances, and would be odds on to do so after annihilating Lance Franklin last time he stepped out.
The Giants have a dangerous forward line that will cause Collingwood’s defence headaches. Cameron, Harry Himmelberg (the league has finally realised is a star), Kung Fu Toby Greene, my favourite player Zac Langdon, and others, so if GWS get the supply, they’ll be hard to beat.
Who is actually going to win:
GWS are 2 – 12 on the MCG all-time, but in the teams meeting earlier in the year (round 2) at the ground, the Giants won, so the home ground advantage factor seems a little bit of a lazy indicator. What is a bit more substantial is the Kelly out. The guy is a superstar, and the Giants don’t take to well to him not being there.
For me, I can’t look past Collingwood’s undeniable desire to play for each other. It looks to be as strong as any team in the competitions. That coupled with their deep midfield has me leaning their way.
Said with a little less conviction than last week’s predictions, Collingwood will win by 8 points.
