Crows V Giants |
The Adelaide Oval hosts Thursday night football, with the two bookmakers premiership favourites going into this one pretty evenly matched.
Despite both losing their round 23 clashes, each team will have freshened up after a week off and have relatively healthy squads to pick from, although I expect another one or two crows will need their appendix removed before the bounce.
Question marks remain over Stevie Johnson’s place in a Giants team, which already has heavy attacking weapons in – Cameron, Patton, Greene, Deledio. But there surely must be room in any September side for the man who calls himself “Norm”.
Adelaide too have a raft of scoring weapons and few in the competition are bigger than the skipper, Tex Walker, who will have set himself for a huge one on the finals stage. But it is both teams defences that might ultimately hold the key.
If Laird, Lever, Talia, etc. keep the star studded Giants under wraps, it will all but ensure a win and home prelim for the Crows. At the other end, how will Davis, Tomlinson, Shaw and Wilson handle Jenkins, Betts, Charlie Cameron, etc? It’s an unheralded GWS backline that will be asking their midfield to make the job easier for them if they’re to cause an upset.
I see this one being the closest of the weekend with the home crowds noise of affirmation just getting the Crows up by a goal.
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Cats V Tigers |
By kick-off, it will have been 4115 days since Richmond last saluted over Geelong, and 5838 since they won a final, but Tigers fans will put the numbers aside and go into this one confident – because that’s what they do (until it ultimately ends in tears).
Last time they met, round 21 of this year, the Cats turned the Tigers into domesticated moggies yet again. The win, their 14th in a row over Richmond, was made more meritorious by the absentees – namely fearless leader (perennial bleeder) Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, and Jumping Jack’s son – Jumper-punching Tom (Hawkins).
This time, both teams are expected to be at full strength, although doubts remain over the Geelong skipper. I believe the key to this one rests on Geelong’s ability to defend the wider expanses of the MCG, having struggled with Collingwood twice on the same ground already this year.
The midfields are evenly matched, with the leagues two best on-ball duos “Danger-Wood” and Mart-Chin” going head-to-head. The winner of this battle will be critical. If the Tigers can get supremacy through the middle, their speedy small forwards will be wound up an extra gear for finals, putting pressure on the Geelong backline and causing repeat entries – but can they kick a score without two talls?
I see the finals experience of Geelong extending Richmond’s skid to 15 in a row and the Cats getting up by 14 points.
Power V Eagles |
A flip of the coin for mine.
Having played an elimination final last week, West Coast will take a lot out of their win over Adelaide, but like most of their wins, it has to be taken with a grain of Subiaco salt.
Although the Eagles travel like Australians to Bali (badly), South Australia is their shortest trip and one they’ve had relative success with. Port have struggled against teams around them in ladder position and were outpointed by the Eagles earlier in the year, so their form line is a bit like a liars polygraph.
Charlie Dixon has been in great form, and Robbie Gray is the classiest player in the country, but McGovern, Yeo, and Barrass make intercept marking an art form - so Port will need to lower their eyes if they want to take the W.
I just have the feeling West Coast might be primed to take a finals scalp, and if they can see off the initial surge the Power get from Kochie’s favourite INXS song, they’ll be deep in this one.
I’m tipping an Eagle upset. I’ve got a hunch that the retiring Eagles – Mitchell, Priddis, Petrie - might just help cause an Adelaide Oval boilover.
Swans V Bombers |
Last time they met a series of brain-farts, culminating in a Brendan Goddard “brain-shit-your-pants”, continued the Swans resurgence and sent Essendon on a skid (bottling another game against Brisbane the next week).
It is a superb return to finals football for the Dons, who’ve had as bad a few years as conceivable, and despite not getting the choccies in that last meeting, it will give them a lot of confidence. They outplayed an almost unbeatable Sydney for large periods that night and were four goals up with five minutes to go – so they did a lot right.
Sydney though, has returned to the stampeding Swans we’ve come to expect this time of year. Their best players are back, healthy and finals-hardened.
Michael Hurley has another All Australian blazer in his wardrobe, and although he went running with the bulls last season, few of the beasts he encountered in Pamplona would be as rampaging as Buddy is at the moment. With a hardened midfield group – think Kennedy, Hannebery, Parker, feeding him – Franklin might dine out again.
The Bombers have a good spread of the old and new which gives them some serious X factor. MTW, Merret, Fantasia, Parish, McGrath, how do they stand up to an intense Sydney in the heat of the finals though? Either way, the experience will only make them more formidable in 2018.
I can’t see Essendon causing an upset here, although would be thrilled to see it. Sydney by 6 goals for mine.