Richmond Vs Hawthorn
Last Time They Met: Richmond 15.12. 102 defeated Hawthorn 13.11. 89 (MCG)
Why the Tigers will win:
They handled them comfortably last outing, but it was too long ago to matter.
For all the Hawks experience and class, the Tigers match up incredibly well with them and have the advantage of a very strong defensive unit of Grimes, Rance, Astbury and Vlaustin who should handle most of what Hawthorn can manufacture in the forward half.
Their pressure has been down over the past month, and they can’t win a clearance or free kick differential, but they’ve still been winning. Smartening up those very fixable facets of the game and they’ll be booking an MCG prelim.
Why Hawthorn will win:
They have the master coach at the helm, with eleven days to plot the Tigers demise.
On top of Alistair Clarkson’s genius, they’re a side that naturally like to kick and possess the ball - which looks to be the chink in Richmond’s armour. They can’t pressure you and win the ball back if you’re methodically progressing the ball with precision foot skills.
Young guns Harry Morrison and James Worpel look made for the big time, and the finals experience of ten premiership players makes the Hawks a good blend. Throw in Daniel Howe and James Sicily ,who are set to return from suspension and injury, and Hawthorn look very even.
Who is actually going to win:
For all of the Clarkson genius, it’s been relatively impotent against his great mate Hardwick the last ten outings (where they’re 5 – 5). In addition to that, Hardwick’s intimate knowledge of the Hawks, and to some extent his great mate, Al, even managed to get Richmond a winning record against Hawthorn during their Premiership years (2013 – 2015).
It’s not that Richmond are unbeatable, it’s just that this Hawthorn side isn’t that good. Although earning a top four spot, I have them ranked the 7th or 8th best team left in it.
Richmond by five goals.
Melbourne Vs Geelong
Last Time They Met: Geelong 16.4. 100 defeated Melbourne 14.14. 98 (Kardinia Park)
Why the Demons will win:
They’re the better team. They were in front when full time sounded during the last outing at the fortress that is Kardinia Park (or whatever they call it now).
Simply, Melbourne played all over Geelong, and if it weren’t for big Tom Hawkins playing literally the game of his life, and an absurdly good conversion rate in front of the big sticks, Melbourne win easily. I don’t factor in either of those things happening again for the Cats during a final at The G, but am counting on a contested possession and midfield dominance from the Dees.
Why the Cats will win:
Finals experience is heavily in the Cats favour - they’re there every year, but that’s a little overrated once the first five minutes have passed by. Form is more tangible.
That happens to be something Geelong have run into recently with two dominant performances to close out the season-proper. On top of that, they have a relatively healthy list with only Cockatoo and Ratugolea clearly missing from their best twenty two.
The big three / Holy Trinity have a point to prove. None of them have had their best seasons, and they’ve not really gelled to this point, but you presume they’ve been waiting for September. They’re not going to win the game for their side though… that’s left to the big one, Tom Hawkins.
Hawk has had his most consistent season, and he is the man that will worry the Demons the most. Oscar McDonald was annihilated by Tomahawk last time, and key defenders isn’t Melbourne’s strength. Frost will likely get first crack this time, and if he can’t keep Tom to four sausages or under, his team will lose.
Who is actually going to win:
The Dees.
The game is at the MCG where the Cats have gone two from seven this year. The Dees aren’t exactly unbeatable there (six from eleven), but Geelong’s form there is a genuine concern. So is Melbourne’s clearance and contested ball work.
The Dees have a midfield that will continually drive the ball forward, taking some pressure off their (sometimes questionable) defence. The loss of Jesse Hogan hasn’t hindered them, winning the past two against good opposition without him, and that makes their forward line unpredictable, and dangerous. They’ve managed 29 and 28 shots on the Cats in their two meetings this year, and with slightly better conversion this time, they’ll win comfortably.
Demons by 3+ goals.
West Coast Vs Collingwood
Last Time They Met: West Coast 15.12. 102 defeated Collingwood 9.13. 67 (MCG)
Why the Eagles will win:
The game is at Perth stadium where they’re so much harder to beat, but it won’t be the sole difference between the sides. What will be is the Eagles forward potency.
They have two of the best marking forwards in the competition, and the best two pronged big man combination, and unfortunately for Collingwood, their key back stocks have been plundered by injury. No Scharenberg, Reid, Dunn, means no flexibility in the Pies defence, and a big day for Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy.
Why the Magpies will win:
Had the benefit of playing at Perth Stadium two weeks ago and have a system that appears to be as solid as anyone’s, Richmond included. There seems a real intangible bond among the side, who have faced adversity almost every week, as injuries, scandal and tragedy have plagued the group, but the Pies just keep on winning.
They will hold no fears of the Eagles, and will take a “Free Hit” mind set, because regardless of the outcome, their remaining finals (however many there will be) would be on their home ground, the MCG. A team with nothing to lose is one to fear.
Who is actually going to win:
I can’t go past the Eagles, who are a four goal better team at home, and that will largely prove the difference.
West Coast by 20 points.
Sydney Vs GWS
Last Time They Met: Sydney 11.14. 80 defeated GWS 8.12. 60 (Spotless Stadium)
Why the Swans will win:
They’re the better team. They’ve been the Giants masters in their previous two encounters, one being only 17 days ago, so recent enough for it to be relevant.
Josh Kennedy was born and bred for September (check out the funny reason why here ), and has been building very well in the past month of football, as have his Sydney side, and most importantly, as has Lance “Buddy” Franklin who dined out in the teams previous meeting.
Dan Hannebury has turned his form around, and front of centre, Ben Ronke has provided some goal scoring pluck, and Tom McCartin has been a revelation in the back half of the year, so the forward line is coming together as well as it has all season.
Why the Giants will win:
They have the better players (aside from Franklin). A week off came at a good time for the Giants, after getting dusted off comprehensively by the Dees in round 23.
Phil Davis will be back to tame Buddy, as he has managed to do pretty admirably in previous encounters, and an extra week to clear the head will have served their gun Josh Kelly well, helping him put any after affects from that Tex Walker bell-ringer to bed.
Hard head Cal Ward doesn’t play a bad one, and is every bit the match for the Swans midfield hardness, and Dylan Shiel + Lachy Whitfield are set to frank their good form with big finals. Up forward Jeremy Cameron has had enough football back from suspension to be hitting his straps, and Harry Himmelberg is a grossly underrated target, and converter.
If Toby Greene gets the “green light”, the Giants will stretch a Swans backline that has been more suspect than previous years.
Who is actually going to win:
This is the close one, and toughest to pick, but I expect the Giants to turn their form against their cross town rivals around.
They’ve been in the two previous prelims and have now matured further into their footballing mid-life-cycle, when they should be making good on their promises of talent.
A slight advantage in the midfield will be the difference.
Giants by 12 points.
